This article courtesy Najay1 and is reprinted with his permission.
We are finally getting into the meat of the new meta and things are starting to fall into place.
It’s interesting that we see a lot of older decks start to rise to the top again whereas some of the new tech has fallen by the wayside. One of the major things seen this week was a large diversity of decks coming out of the woodwork and putting up a few results. Interestingly, it also caused a few favorites to not have any pilots in any of the dailies – RUG tron, MUC, and Grixis Fae Combo.
Although some things are starting to become clear, nothing is certain and I would love to see some more decks put up fantastic results.
Delver – Again with a smaller prominence than one would expect at 10.5%. It certainly exceeded the prominence as it had a 55.5% cash rate and a 61% win rate. Both of these rates are way above average, even for Delver. This is the deck that many people consider the best deck, and even though it has not performed amazing yet, I would not be surprised to see a still high win rate. Part of the high win rate is that because less people are playing the deck, a greater amount have the high ticket cards – Daze, Snap, and Hydroblast. This will push the win rate higher not only because it is the optimal build, but also because the decks that have the high ticket cards have a more experienced pilot on average (although this is a correlation and not a causational relationship) as they have spent the money to invest, there is a higher chance that they are more invested in magic and have spent more time and money playing. Although this is obviously not always true, and probably only true enough for a minor relationship, it will play an effect.
Stompy – Again the aggro giant lays as one of the top decks of the week. It has performed fantastic in the new meta and I expect it to keep up the success. This week it had a 42% cash rate and a 55% win rate. In addition, it maintained a popularity similar to Delver at 11%. This is the premier aggro deck in the format and it has really done better in the current meta than any other aggro deck. Because of this, I would not be surprised if some people started to switch over to Stompy more and more as the other decks fall out of favor.
Goblins – A classic deck that was driven to extinction with the rise of foreign cruises, I would not be surprised to see this deck continue to climb the ranks. It had a cash rate of 43% in 7 appearances with a win rate of 60%. As I talked about last week, the new additions to this deck do seem to give it a bit more reach. Mardu Scout is really the one that impacts as it can continually turn on Mogg Conscripts and Goblin Cohort along with being a 3 power threat for 2 mana with upside. Also, it gives the ability to win games where people let their guard down for one turn and it’s over. Don’t be surprised to see Goblins make a larger comeback.
UR Fiend – One of the decks that most recently experienced an update, it certainly has not lived up to the expectations – at least this week. It placed only 2 of its 13 entries into the cash range for a disappointing 15% and a 42.5% win rate. Now, this does include the data of UR Fiend Control decks which have been minutely popular in the past few weeks. I would not be surprised that it skewed the data a bit – but there was probably 2 to 3 copies max so it should not sway the data too much. Overall, the prominence of MBC makes this a pretty bad meta call right now. You need more creatures than they have removal spells and that is in no way the current case. I wouldn’t look for this to improve enough to keep it off the losers list.
MBC – The current king of the format in terms of popularity, it had 34 copies making up 20% of the meta. It is really the deck you have to beat in order to be successful in the current meta. It had a 29.5% cash rate and 45% win rate. It also had a massive split in its finishes. It had 10 4-0/3-1 decks, and 22 1-X/0-X decks, but only 2 2-X decks in the middle. I’m not sure what to really account for the disparity. It could be deck build or experience, and it is a large sample size, so I would assume it has to be a bit of each. In terms of the failure this week, the decks that MBC preyed upon have started to evaporate. There were only 2 Hexproof decks and 0 RUG Tron lists, both of which are easy wins for MBC. In addition, everybody knows they have to beat the list so they came prepared. It seems that it may not be MBC you want to be, but instead be MBC’s worst nightmare.
Affinity – For the meta’s second most popular deck at 12%, Affinity has not been performing up to expectations in the post-Cruise meta. I’ve talked about it before, but this deck simply lost a lot of its best matchups and will continue to underperform until Delver regains its popularity as the top deck. This week it had a cash rate of 30%, but a win rate of 52%. A lot of the discrepancy between the two comes with the fact that Affinity had plenty of decks in the 2-X range. This is common for the deck as it often will win at least one match off of a nut-draw, but then lose at least a match to mulligans. Therefore, I would expect Affinity to pretty consistently have this unusual cash rate to win rate ratio. I wouldn’t expect to see this fall out of the meta, but I also do not think it will be a top deck anytime soon unless Delver dominates in popularity.
Deck to Watch For
Boros Kitty – This deck showed up in numbers this week with 8 copies across the 3 dailies – significantly more than in weeks past. Despite that, it didn’t put up amazing results with a 25% cash rate and 50% win rate. A lot of this is simply due to a small sample size and it seemed like the deck was performing nicely. It also had a top 4 finish in the PCT for additional data. This is another deck that was basically forced out of the meta by Cruise and I would not be surprised to see it come back in even larger numbers – even if it isn’t a tier 1 deck. Witch such a good matchup with MBC, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this deck perform as great MBC hate.
Rogue of the Week
UB Angler Control – By far the most interesting brews this week were the flavors of Angler coming out (there was also a Rakdos version in the PCT). I personally love this deck as it is a mystical teachings deck that runs out a more aggressive and threatening midgame. This way it can play out like a traditional control deck, but can also play the aggro role if it sees the opportunity. The ability to have a toolbox of answers along with a massive beater means that it will be rare to have the play out an Angler without massive protection. At that same point, this deck does not seem to have a fantastic matchup against MBC (like any other deck with few creatures). Despite this, I think that a very controlling toolbox build may be what it takes for Angler to come out in force again.
Pauper Classic Tuesdays
These are from the weekly pauper tournament over on Gatherling.com, it runs every Tuesday at 8 pm EST.