This article courtesy Najay1 and is reprinted with his permission.
About this article
This is a weekly report on the online pauper meta. The data it uses are from last Wednesday to this Wednesday (May 6). It looks at the data that Tom the Scud collects from a selection of dailies. He watches the replays on MTGO to figure out how each person did, not just the 3-1s and 4-0s that Wizards publishes. This allows us to see the whole iceberg and figure out how well each deck did in total. Now, this data is just for this week and just from the data Tom collects, so it does ignore the other 3-1/4-0 results which means it is not perfect. Additionally, the conclusions in this article are just based on this week, and as the meta is fluid, the top decks shift. This is intended to see what decks are performing well this week and is not necessarily a reflection of the deck’s overall strength.
This week is a bit unique, as I am putting 3 losers and only 2 winners. Really, only 2 decks stood out as being above the curve, whereas a lot of decks had pretty bad weeks. The amount of decks that 3-1ed or 4-0 is really quite impressive. Yet, it seems that the meta has really started to even out a little bit. 8 decks made up 5% of the meta or more – Affinity, Delver, Stompy, UR Fiend, MBC, Goblins, W Tokens, and Burn. Together they made up about 68%.
Enjoy, and thanks for reading!
1. W Tokens – The definite winner of the week was the token deck. After it exploded on the scene last week, it has continued to play a role tying for the 5th most prominent deck at 7.1% this week. Not only did it see popularity, it had great success. With a 61.5% cash rate and a 64.1% win rate – both great numbers. It even only had 1 deck at each 1-X and 0-X (out of 13 entries). Interestingly, it looks like the Wu version has basically disappeared which is not that surprising. People really need to start packing more Crypt Rats in MBC, as tokens went 6-0 v. MBC, although because of the price I’m not sure that it’ll happen. For now, tokens remains a great meta call.
2. Affinity – This deck has not seen too much success in the recent meta, but it was able to put up great results this week with a 46.7% cash rate and 54.3% win rate. It also won the PCT and had a T8 finish (with a combined W-L of 10-2). Affinity has been one of the decks that I have seen as worse since the meta change. This is one of the first weeks where it has put up really strong results. Affinity can have really strong, and really weak, weeks just based on the amount of inconsistency and raw power in the deck. The deck has strong matchups vs. MBC and Delver, but it significantly weaker versus Stompy, Burn, W Tokens, etc. This week it somehow went 3-0 v. Stompy and 2-0 v. Burn which indicated that it did get a bit lucky. Maybe I judged this one a bit too quickly though, it ones of the decks I really have my eye on coming up.
1. Burn – By far the most surprising deck of the week was burn. It put up 0 results in the money from 13 entrants. It had a dismal win rate of only 25.5%. Now there were 4 people who 2-Xed, which means a 3-1 wasn’t far off, but a 25.5% win rate is just too bad to come up with excuses for. Looking at its matchups (with the data from Tom’s column Pauper Observed), it went 0-2 v. Affinity, 0-6 v. Delver, 0-3 v. Stompy, 0-3 v. W Tokens, and it only faced MBC 4 times for a record of 3-1. This was obviously to some extent luck, but going winless against 4 of the most popular decks is just inexcusable. Maybe the worst week of any deck I’ve seen since I started looking at the data.
2. Goblins – Goblins also had a terrible week even though it jumped up to 5.5% of the meta. It had just one 3-1 for a cash rate of 10% and an overall win rate of 30.8%. I started playing the deck last week and I’ve had decent success with it in the PCT and Tournament Practice room although I haven’t run it out in a daily. It also had 4 pilots at 2-X, so it was close to increase the cash rate, but such a low win rate is telling. I don’t think the deck is as bad as this week’s results indicate, but this is another deck that I will be watching closely to see how it develops.
3. Stompy – Stompy continue the trend of good decks doing really bad this week with an 18.2% cash rate and 34.7% win rate. It quite simply did not put up strong results 7 of the 11 decks went 0-X or 1. Why exactly it did so badly, I’m not certain. According to Tom’s data, the deck put up a losing record to every top deck except for burn. I wouldn’t expect this to be the same in the future and would anticipate the results going back up.
MBC is an interesting case. This week it was 14.8% of the meta with 27 results through the 3 dailies – 8 more than the next highest. Yet, it still was not able to put up results. It had a cash rate of 22.2% and a win rate of 45.3%. Again it put a huge amount of decks at 2-X (9), and it consistently has a ton of decks in that spot. It made up more than its fair share at 2-X with 9 out of the 34 decks, which means it made up 26.5% of the 2-X spots.
The deck seems to be just not strong enough to get to the top end. The other interesting thing with MBC is that it also had some great events this week that data wasn’t fully available for. It put up more than 5 decks into the cash in 4 events out of the 6 Wizards put out last week, none of which Tom looked at. This is one of the weird cases where the data conflicts heavily. Really a deck to watch in the next few weeks as its success is in question.
Deck to Watch For
UB Teachings & Turbo Angler – There are two main flavors of Angler going on. One of them is a Mystical Teachings deck that I have touched on earlier, but does have some game. The other is a more tempo-control list that packs a few more creatures (most importantly Delver) and a lot more enabler cards like Mental Note and Thought Scour. These decks have started to put up more and more real results in the recent weeks and placed 2 of its 3 entries into the cash in these dailies. This is a deck I wouldn’t be surprised if people jump on a bit as the last iteration of the list was very popular and UB Control tends to be a popular deck no matter how strong it is. I’m interested to see which version has more success in the coming weeks.
Brew of the Week
No G Kitty – Now this is not the exact list, but Wizards didn’t release it and I can’t assume too many people are running this list so it should be similar at least (although the 4-0 list ran Gravedigger). Now it does have the mana to afford a splash with 4 Prophetic Prism, 3 Evolving Wilds (although no swamps which there really should be), and 4 black gain lands. Now that doesn’t mean the splash is necessary, but it really doesn’t need black mana until late in the game (as it is playing Grim Harvest and Angler, both cards that can be saved for late). I’m also not really sure why people feel the need to add more and more colors to Kitty, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 5 color list in the future (probably not, Green doesn’t offer too much). We’ll see if this trend of more color kitty continues in the future.
Edit: http://i.imgur.com/nnAp6oY.jpg here is the list that 4-0ed (thanks DromarX). He does play 7 fetches and a swamp (along with 3 Prisms and 3 gain lands) so the black will be there if it is needed. He is playing the black for 3 Terminate and 2 Gravedigger which is interesting to say the least. I do like the Terminate, but Gravedigger seems just too slow for all of the aggro out there. I would rather have Grim Harvest as it is just a better long term plan. Very interesting deck, though.
The PCT is a free weekly tournament (with prize support from MTGOTraders) hosted on Gatherling.com by LongTimeGone. It occurs Tuesday at 8 pm EST.