Mid-Week Pauper Meta Report: Mediocrity

About this series: This is a weekly report on the online pauper meta. The data it uses are from last week Wednesday to this past Wednesday. It looks at the data that I collect from a selection of dailies. I watch the replays on MTGO to figure out how each person did, not just the 3-1s and 4-0s that Wizards publishes. This allows us to see the whole iceberg and figure out how well each deck did in total. Now, this data is just for this week and just from this data, so it does ignore the other 3-1/4-0 results which means it is not perfect. Additionally, the conclusions in this article are just based on this week, and as the meta is fluid, the top decks shift. This is intended to see what decks are performing well this week and is not necessarily a reflection of the deck’s overall strength.

This article uses data from just the 7-5 afternoon and 7-6 daily results. Sadly MTGO crashed in the 2 other dailies I tried to get, so we are running off a data deficit this week.

I didn’t get as much data as I would have liked this week, but surprisingly the data is not that swayed at all. For example, look at the graphs below.

Almost every single deck is about where we would expect, with the exception of a resurgent Burn, and no did gained or lost more than 4% prominence. Most decks simply did average, not too great and not too bad, which is heavily demonstrated in the graph below.

Look at that consistency. With the exception of MBC, most decks are simply in the expected average range. Affinity, Stompy, and UB Angler all did better, but they were not something exceptional. Most of them are just better than you would normally expect. I mainly attribute this to variance, but it does show something about the meta. It could signify a balancing out of the meta where more deck choices are viable. Now Pauper is usually this way where there are at least a few decks that are viable choices of different types of decks. UB Angler is one of the more interesting of these decks as recently it has had much more success. I think a lot of that would be attributed to less Burn and MBC in the meta, but both were still very popular this week. UB Angler is the deck I am most interested to watch over the next few weeks. The deck that I have been watching closely is Esper Fae. Here are its results from last week:

It didn’t do close to as bad against Delver this week, but it did do something that surprised me at least a bit. A 7-0 record against MBC. Now, I have stated in the past that I believed the deck was closer to 50-50 (with maybe a bigger edge for Esper), but this was not the case at all. Last week it went 3-3, so maybe a fluke, but this definitely gives an edge to Esper, for as long as it is in the meta. With the exclusion of MBC, it had a 43.3% win rate, not great. It did have a terrible record against Affinity, as expected, and it did badly against other aggro decks. More proof of being weak to aggro comes in the next graphs.


As a disclaimer, this counts the turn somebody concedes so the game may have actually gone on a turn or more longer. Over the last week we saw a much higher portion of games end on turn 5. This is in contrast to the past few weeks which have had turn 6 and 7 be the most popular. On the graph with the past 3 weeks, we see the combo really becoming possible on turn 5 and the threat remaining high until the games end. In addition, there is a larger and larger chance that they are just able to win by beating down. On the other hand, the deck loses a ton on turn 4 and 5 and it get harder to beat them the longer the games go on. As more data has been collected, the numbers are starting to show that the wat to win is just to beat down. If your deck can’t win quick, then it probably can’t win against Esper Fae. I think this is one of the main reasons it was so good in the Treasure Cruise meta, the best decks were all slow and people were playing to draw 3, not deal 3. Let me know if you want more analysis on Esper Fae or whether you would like to see the stats on a different deck.

Enjoy, and thanks for reading! –Najay1

Winners

1. Affinity – Stats: 8.28% Prominence; 50.00% Cash Rate; 56.52% Win Rate. This is a deck that has consistently done average. Not great, not bad, just average. I think it is going to start doing better as it has great matchups against Delver and Esper Fae whereas it does not have great matchups against Burn and MBC. This is a list that I certainly expect to start doing better as the meta shifts to more and more Delver. Expect strong results if the meta stays more Delver.

2. UB Angler – Stats: 6.51% Prominence; 45.45% Cash Rate; 59.46% Win Rate. One of the decks that has done much better recently after a shaky start. Just a little while ago I was off of this deck, but it has put up very promising results recently. Now it is important to note that this week it did not have a huge amount of pilots – 11 – so that there could be variance in these results. That win rate is quite strong and I am going to be heavily watching this deck going forward and how it plays against other main decks.

3. Stompy – Stats: 6.51% Prominence; 45.45% Cash Rate; 54.05% Win Rate. Stompy is one of the better decks recently, although it has not been played as much as I believe it should. It is fighting for the spot of the best aggro deck in the meta with Affinity. Now I think currently this deck is in a better spot, with MBC and Burn being popular and all, although that may change as Delver (a 50-50 matchup) becomes more popular.

Losers

1. MBC – Stats: 11.83% Prominence; 20.00% Cash Rate; 40.00% Win Rate. There was only one deck that was bad enough with a high enough sample size to really be called a loser. That deck is MBC. The deck had a high popularity again, but it did not put up the results that we would expect. Now small sample size is less of a concern here as MBC had lots of pilots, but dailies can vary widely in what decks are there and variance is still a factor, as always. Maybe with more Delver (as this week) the deck could do better, but it doesn’t look promising.

Tribes to Watch

Elves – Stats: 2.96% Prominence; 40.00% Cash Rate; 50.00% Win Rate. This is a very interesting deck to me as it doesn’t seem to be a great deck in a meta that is full of MBC. Still, the deck has done quite decently throughout the past season. I do worry that the deck is not the difficult to hate out (similar to W Tokens) even with Spidersilk Armor. It simply is weak to most of the black sweepers, it is weak to targeted removal, and it can run out of gas without Distant Melody or if it is countered. An interesting deck to look out for.

Goblins – Stats: 2.96% Prominence; 60.00% Cash Rate; 73.68% Win Rate. This is one of my personal favorite decks and I have found it to be quite strong in the recent meta. This week’s results are great and it builds upon a few weeks of promising results. At that same point, I don’t think that the deck is necessarily better than Affinity or Stompy as it is weaker to hate, doesn’t have a great way to regain gas, and can fail to create too much immediate pressure.

Brew of the Week

[d title=”BW Rebels by mebigunot”]
Creature
2 Amrou Seekers
4 Aven Riftwatcher
4 Blightspeaker
2 Defiant Falcon
1 Nightwind Glider
3 Ramosian Lieutenant
3 Ramosian Sergeant
3 Rathi Trapper
1 Thermal Glider
1 Zealot il-Vec

Instant
2 Doom Blade

Artifact
3 Bonesplitter
1 Serrated Arrows

Enchantment
4 Bound in Silence
1 Journey to Nowhere

Land
3 Evolving Wilds
1 Haunted Fengraf
4 Orzhov Basilica
9 Plains
4 Scoured Barrens
1 Secluded Steppe
2 Swamp
1 Terramorphic Expanse

Sideboard
1 Nightwind Glider
1 Zealot il-Vec
2 Serrated Arrows
3 Circle of Protection: Red
3 Disenchant
2 Nihil Spellbomb
3 Standard Bearer [/d]

This is a deck that I find very interesting. This list is a highly synergistic deck that can play various roles. It has the semi-potential to play the beatdown role while really wanting to play the long game in a toolbox type strategy. The deck has lots of tools that is able to search up without too much trouble. In addition, it has lots of great value creatures that can be good against a variety of decks with tappers, pro-black and pro-red creatures, white intimidate, and the like. And it can do all of those without having to deal with counters. The one thing I really do not like in this deck is the landbase. It is sporadic without enough coherence to be really great. I would much rather have a more streamlined landbase that doesn’t have the majority of their lands ETB tapped. There is a good chance that you will play a tapland T1, bounce it with the Basilica, and then play it again. You are just losing to aggro decks at that point and it takes away any aggro potential the deck could have.

Data

PCT Results

The PCT is a weekly tournament hosted on Gatherling.com by LongTimeGone. It occurs Tuesday at 8 pm est.

Mid-Week Pauper Meta Report: Esper Explosion

About this article: This is a weekly report on the online pauper meta. The data it uses are from last week Wednesday to this past Wednesday. It looks at the data that I collect from a selection of dailies. I watch the replays on MTGO to figure out how each person did, not just the 3-1s and 4-0s that Wizards publishes. This allows us to see the whole iceberg and figure out how well each deck did in total. Now, this data is just for this week and just from this data, so it does ignore the other 3-1/4-0 results which means it is not perfect. Additionally, the conclusions in this article are just based on this week, and as the meta is fluid, the top decks shift. This is intended to see what decks are performing well this week and is not necessarily a reflection of the deck’s overall strength.

This article uses data from the 6-27 Afternoon, 6-28 Evening, and 6-29 daily results.

Coming out of last week, a few things were expected to happen. First, Burn was expected to drop in popularity. Secondly, Stompy and Delver were expected to rise a bit. Lastly, MBC was expected to go back to bad results. All of those came true, but nobody really predicted everything that was going to happen.

First off, Delver absolutely dominated this week. Even as the top deck (by a growing margin), they still managed to gain 8% prominence from overall to cash. It’s time to bring in the [c]Gut Shot[/c], if that card is ever going to be good, it is this upcoming week. Delver was not the only deck to have a strong week, Stompy and UB Angler also did fantastic and were the top 3 decks in the cash. On the other hand, MBC, Burn, and Esper Fae Combo all had bad weeks. Esper Fae didn’t do terrible, but for the first time in a long time the deck actually didn’t do well. So why didn’t the deck do well? Here is a full list of every match (not individual games) Esper Fae played and why it wasn’t able to achieve success.

Every single one of these matchups are within one game except for UR Fiend (which is within 2) and Delver. Esper Fae went 4-8 versus Delver. You simply cannot have such a bad record against the best deck in the meta! I didn’t actually expect Delver to do this well, but it really was a great deck against Esper Fae. Unlike most other decks in the meta, it was able to play the aggro role (necessary to be truly great against the deck) while keeping up tons of prevention. It seemed like the deck had the most success when it decided what role it wanted to play and stuck with it. Interested to see whether Delver can continue beating Esper Fae this bad. I watched Esper Fae’s games and determined the turn they ended again as well.

This week was certainly a bit different than last week. Significantly more 5 turn combo wins were seen from Esper Fae, and I think I was wrong in declaring turn 6 as the turn that you can expect them to be able to go off. Turn 5 may be that turn where you need to be ready to stop them going off. Also, the deck was able to go off on turn 7 or earlier in 62.50% games where it went off and on turn 7 or earlier in 49.02% of games it won. Finally it went off that early in 24.27% of games. Now that is low this week simply because it lost so many games. It is also interesting that the games it won were mostly decided pretty quickly or took much more than 10 turns. I’ll continue looking at this to gain some more data and get a better insight into the deck.

Here we see another week with some very strong, and very weak, decks. Stompy has the best week by far, but UB Angler and Delver also did fantastic. Affinity and UR Fiend continue to be simply above average, but not fantastic. Burn and MBC did not do well as usual, but the real kicker is Esper Fae. It had a cash rate of 20% (less than half of its usual) and it had a win rate of 46.94%, not amazing either. But we’ll jump into that later on.

Enjoy, and thanks for reading! –Najay1

Winners

1. Stompy – Stats: 5.74% Prominence; 66.67% Cash Rate; 62.79% Win Rate. This is one of the better weeks that we have seen in quite a while. Out of the 12 pilots, 8 of them went 3-1. That is insane! After that, 3 went 1-X and 1 went 0-X. The deck had a fantastic week and it is just quite well positioned in the meta right now. It has quite decent matchups versus the majority of the meta including MBC and Delver, the two top decks. In addition, it is a great [c]Scattershot Archer[/c] deck, a card that is now starting to become strong enough to be played mainboard, as it is in about half of the top Stompy lists. I think this deck will become more popular soon, but it has dipped to unusually low levels for a top deck.

2. UB Angler – Stats: 10.53% Prominence; 40.91% Cash Rate; 62.34% Win Rate. This is one of the bigger surprises this week. It hasn’t been too fantastic recently, but this week it went insane. It had 6 people at 4-0 and 3 people at 3-1. This is one of the stranger results as UB Angler had double the amount of 4-0s as 3-1s. One thing this could suggest is that the deck is well positioned against the top decks, but it also could just be variance. Definitely one to watch as the meta progresses.

3. Delver – Stats: 15.79% Prominence; 45.45% Cash Rate; 58.77% Win Rate. This is the dominant deck over the past few weeks. After a long time where it had strong results, but low prominence, it has finally taken over the top spot as the king of the meta. Now it did not have the best results this week, but it one of the few decks that has had great weeks over and over and over. It has not had a bad week in forever. It is time to start bringing in Delver hate or playing the deck, I wouldn’t be surprised if the meta goes back to Delver v. others.

Losers

1. Burn – Stats: 5.74% Prominence; 8.33% Cash Rate; 36.11% Win Rate. Finally Burn has fallen! The meta has been hostile to a deck that needs the right meta to succeed. It seems that its continual failure has caught up to it and people are dropping the deck like hot potatoes. The deck has not done well in a while, but finally it seems like it’s not going to played quite as much. I would expect Burn to lower in the meta and you don’t need to build around it quite as much.

2. MBC – Stats: 12.44% Prominence; 19.23% Cash Rate; 43.37% Win Rate. After a bit of sunshine, MBC is back in its normal place – the losers circle. I still am not a fan of this deck, but as Delver grows more and more popular, it may gain a bit in success. I would be surprised to see MBC get more strong results continually.

3. Esper Fae Combo – Stats: 7.18% Prominence; 20.00% Cash Rate; 46.94% Win Rate. Here is the shocker. It still wasn’t as bad as some other lists, but the deck was not able to place in the winner’s circle close to as much as it wants to. I think a decent bit of that is because Delver was such a force this week. In addition, the deck was not able to combo off as often on Turn 6 or earlier as often. In addition, it faced much faster decks this week as they lost many games before they were able to go off. If you can go off before them, they are forced to try to combo off when they may not have all the pieces in place. I would be surprised if you see the deck do this badly again, but I’m certainly watching and recording.

Deck to Watch For

UB Teachings – Stats: 4.78% Prominence; 30.00% Cash Rate; 41.38% Win Rate. A deck that I thought was mostly gone, but has experienced a resurgence in the past few weeks. Now, it never put up fantastic results, but it has been strong enough that I would not be against playing the deck if you enjoy the style. Also, as this deck and UB Angler are very similar, make sure you know the differences so you know what deck you are playing at the start, as they end up playing out very different.

Data

PCT Results – The PCT is a weekly tournament hosted on Gatherling.com by LongTimeGone. It occurs Tuesday at 8 pm est.

Mid-Week Pauper Meta Report: May 28, 2015

ghostly flicker art

About this article

This is a weekly report on the online pauper meta. The data it uses are from last Wednesday to this Wednesday. It looks at the data that Tom Scud collects from a selection of dailies. He watches the replays on MTGO to figure out how each person did, not just the 3-1s and 4-0s that Wizards publishes. This allows us to see the whole iceberg and figure out how well each deck did in total. Now, this data is just for this week and just from the data Tom collects, so it does ignore the other 3-1/4-0 results which means it is not perfect. Additionally, the conclusions in this article are just based on this week, and as the meta is fluid, the top decks shift. This is intended to see what decks are performing well this week and is not necessarily a reflection of the deck’s overall strength.

This uses the data from the 5/21, 5/22 evening, 5/24 afternoon, and 5/24 evening results

No decks really exploded onto the scene this week and W Tokens continued its fall, but UB Angler has now risen to make up more than 5% of the field and had a quite decent week. The other major story is that the DtK season is wrapping up and Modern Masters 2015 is coming in as the hot new thing.

pauper-meta-5-28-05pauper-meta-5-28-04

The prominence graphs are above and really there is not too much fluctuation from the prominence in all of the field and just the 3-1 and 4-0 results. The only deck that increased/decreased by more than 2% was Esper Fae. This shows a decently even metagame for the week and not the large jumps that can often occur.

pauper-meta-5-28-03

The graph above demonstrated the 2 groups of decks this week. Esper Fae is above all with over 60% cash and win rates and just after that UR Fiend, UB Angler, Delver, and Burn are all very close to each other with very strong weeks. Affinity, MBC, and Stompy did not do as well, with the entire group having less than 30% cash rates and a losing record. Stompy had a much worse week than I expected, but other than that this graph is not super surprising.

As always thanks for reading, Najay1!

Winners

1. Esper Fae Combo – Esper Fae continues its hot streak at the top of the charts with a 62.5% cash rate and a 65.45% win rate. It was very polar in the results as it had 10 decks in the money and 4 decks winless with only 2 in between. With the arrival of Gut Shot, the deck now is much less safe going off while the opponent is tapped out and could suffer as a result, but for the current season Esper Fae is leaving on top. Look for another strong week from Esper Fae.

2. UR Fiend – A deck that has not been racking up the numbers recently, it made a strong showing this week as it put up a 43.75% cash rate and 57.41% win rate. Despite that, I do not expect the deck to be a major power in the meta in the immediate future. The question with the deck going forward is to what extent the deck will utilize Gut Shot, if at all. I am a bit surprised about the amount of UR Fiend with the dominance of MBC as it is not a strong match up at all and I would not look for the deck to be great during the end of the season.

3. UB Angler – The best Gurmag Angler deck is starting to really become a deck to watch out for. Last week the deck just missed 5% prominence and this week it barely got over the mark with a 5.06% prominence. With the larger sample size, the deck’s results can now be analyzed more accurately and this week it did quite well with a 43.75% cash rate and a 55.56% win rate. The Delver version of the deck is now by far the better contender and has put up very strong results. I really like this deck and its current version which have done better than the Turbo Angler decks of last season.

Losers

1. W Tokens – The past flavor of the week deck is now diminishing back to its normal size with a 3.8% prominence across the 4 dailies. Those decks did not have strong numbers either as it had a 8.33% cash rate and a 42.11% win rate, not the most stellar. The win rate does indicate the cash rate should probably be higher (as 1/3 of the pilots went 2-X), but it could also indicate that the top decks were prepared for W Tokens. As the hate starts to fade away, the deck may be able to make a comeback.

2. Stompy – Stompy is a deck that I thought would be great in the coming weeks, but it certainly did not have a great performance this week. With a 22.73% cash rate and a 45.07% win rate, the deck did not do as well as expected. One of the reasons for the failure is a 2-6 record versus Esper Fae (not including the data from the 5/24 evening daily) which was its second most common match up. This was mostly just a bad draw for Stompy and they probably will not meet too much in the future. Overall, I can see this deck doing decent to great before Gut Shot hits at which time the future is unknown.

3. Affinity – Affinity also had a below average week, again, as it took home a 27.27% cash rate and a 44.93% win rate. The deck had as many 0-X as it did 3-1s and it placed 0 4-0s. The deck has been mediocre pretty consistently in the season, but the addition of Gut Shot ma change its fate. On one hand, Gut Shot is just terrible against Affinity, as it can basically hit nothing except Flayer Husk (which isn’t even in every list). Yet, Delver isn’t a bad matchup (16-16 in this season) and can be tuned to be a great one and Delver may be put out of the meta to some extent (although it is currently underplayed so we will see). The results of this deck in the next season will be interesting to watch.

Deck Spotlight

MBC – MBC was again the most popular deck with 51 entries through 4 dailies. That leads to a prominence of 16.14% which is down from the more than 20% it packed last week. The deck was below average this week with a 29.41% cash rate and a 48.78% win rate. These are both a bit below average, but are not as bad as some of the numbers seen in the past. Interesting again was the difference between the cash and win rate. Overall, the deck was again did not merit the top spot in the meta, but this week was a bit better than some of its past results.

Brew of the Week

UR Tron Fae Combo – This is not the newest deck on the block and has been around for a decent while, and has never really put up more than a few copies in the results. The list is similar to RUG Tron, but it does not rely on big fatties to get the job done, but the Cloud of Fae win con like in Esper Fae. I do like this deck because it seems to have more resistance to MBC and also can win by Kaervek’s Torch or Sage’s Row Denizen. An interesting list and one that I think more should check out.

Data

Thanks to Tom the Scud. Check out his Facebook and his Big Fat Spreadsheet.

pauper-meta-5-28-01

PCT Results

The PCT is a weekly tournament hosted on Gatherling.com by LongTimeGone. It occurs Tuesday at 8 pm est.

pauper-meta-5-28-02